In its 17th annual Turbine-Powered
Civil Helicopter Purchasing Outlook, Honeywell Aerospace expects that
4,750-5,250 civilian-use helicopters will be delivered during
2015-2019. The 2015 outlook presents a snapshot of the helicopter
business at a point in time and reflects the current business and
political environment.
The forecast estimates the five-year
share of demand from the U.S. and Canada at 34 percent, up nearly
eight points on stronger North American buying plans. When combined
with Latin America, the Western Hemisphere represents 53 percent of
the five-year global demand. Europe's share tallies 24 percent, with
the Asia-Oceania region accounting for 14 percent, and Africa and the
Middle East contributing nine percent.
Operators who intend to
purchase a helicopter within the next five years noted that the age
of their current aircraft (which includes factors such as maintenance
costs, performance erosion and safety concerns), contracted
replacement cycle and warranty expiration were all key reasons for
their decision.
"Purchase interest for helicopters
in training, tourism, firefighting and law enforcement categories is
trending up,” said Mike Madsen, president, Defense and Space,
Honeywell Aerospace.
Operator preferences by class of helicopter
- Light
single-engine helicopters continue to be the most popular helicopter class, garnering almost half the new
purchase interest in the 2015 survey.
The Airbus EC130/AS350 series, Bell 407, Bell 505 and Robinson R66 were the most frequently mentioned
models.
- Intermediate and medium twin-engine
helicopters are the second most popular product class, with approximately 31 percent of total
survey participants planning to buy a
new model of this type. The most frequently mentioned models were the AW139, AW169, Bell 412, EC145T2
and Sikorsky S-76 series. Emerging
super-medium-class helicopters such as the AW189, Bell 525 and EC175 rely on large fleet operators in the energy, natural resource, and search and rescue
sectors for substantial portions of
their demand, and may be underrepresented in the current survey sample. Near-term interest may be volatile based
on conditions in the energy markets.
- The light twin helicopter class earned between 18-19
percent of total operator purchase
plans in the 2015 survey, with the EC135, Bell 429 and AW109 series helicopters noted most frequently.
- Heavy multi-engine helicopters, such as the EC225,
AW101 and S-92, registered small but
steady levels of new helicopter purchase plans in the 2015 survey; however, demand from large oil and gas fleet
operators not included in the survey
continues to support volume in the heavy class even though some near-term replacement activity may be
deferred. Mi-8/17 purchase plans are
not fully represented due to limited response from Russian operators in the 2015 survey.
Satisfaction with aircraft
Again in this year's survey, Honeywell
asked all respondents to indicate their current satisfaction over the
past year with each model of aircraft they operate. For models that
received more than 25 responses, the make and models with the highest
net scores are the AW139, Robinson R66, Bell 407, Bell 429, Bell 412,
Bell 206L, EC135, EC145, AS350B series and Sikorsky S-76C.
These
top platforms account for over 70 percent of all survey make and
model mentions and can be considered the top current production
helicopters in terms of recent customer satisfaction attitudes and
likelihood to promote.
Helicopter use expected to increase
Helicopter fleet utilization is
expected to increase this year. Planned increases by region include:
- North America:
27 percent of operators plan increases and only six percent plan decreases.
- Europe: 10 percent of operators plan increases and four percent
plan decreases.
- Latin America: 45 percent of operators plan increases and only four
percent plan decreases.
- Middle East and Africa: 18 percent of operators plan
increases and only three percent plan
decreases.
- Asia-Oceania: 14 percent of
operators plan increases and six percent plan decreases.
Oil and gas operators reported the
highest flight-hour use per aircraft at approximately 850 hours per
year, followed by tourism with a strong increase to just under 700
hours per year and then law enforcement at more than 600 hours per
year. Emergency medical services, training, firefighting and general
utility were closely grouped at approximately 400-450 hours per year.
The lowest average use was reported by corporate segment operators at
just over 360 hours per helicopter per year.
As a side note, the U.S. Transportation
Command is currently seeking a contractor that may be able to provide four heavy rotary wing aircraft capable of flying 150 hours per aircraft per month
(1,800 hours per year).