Unmanned
Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) continue as the most dynamic growth
sector of the world aerospace industry this decade, according to a
new study released by Teal Group, a
market analysis firm based in Fairfax, Va. New
unmanned combat aerial vehicle programs, commercial, and consumer
spending all promise to drive more than a tripling of the market over
the next decade.
Teal
Group's 2015 market study estimates that UAV production will soar
from current worldwide production of $4 billion annually to
$14 billion, totaling $93 billion in the next ten
years. Military UAV research spending would add another $30
billion over the decade.
This
year's study includes consumer UAVs for the first time because of
their rapid growth and the blurring of the commercial and consumer
markets. "Consumer UAVs are showing that they can do many of the
easier commercial missions such as simple real estate photography,"
said Philip Finnegan, Teal Group's director of corporate analysis and
an author of the study.
"Our
2015 UAV study calculates the market at 72 percent military, 23
percent consumer, 5 percent civil cumulative for the decade,”
Finnegan said. Of the three
areas, civil UAVs grow most rapidly over the forecast period as
airspace around the world is opened, but it grows from a very low
base.
"The
Teal Group study predicts that the U.S. will account for 64 percent
of total military worldwide Research,
Development, Test, and Evaluation spending
on UAV technology over the next decade, and about 38 percent of the
military procurement," said Teal Group senior analyst Steve
Zaloga, another author of the study.
The
2015 study provides 10-year funding and production forecasts for a
wide range of UAV payloads, including Electro-Optic/Infrared Sensors
(EO/IR), Synthetic Aperture Radars, Signals Intelligance, Electronic
Warfare and
C4I (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, & Intelligence)
systems. These payloads are forecast to double in value from $3.1
billion in fiscal year 2015 to $6.4 billion in fiscal year 2024.
EO/IR is still the default sensor for the vast majority of UAVs, but
recent years have seen up-and-down funding and considerable
uncertainty, as legacy endurance UAV production has ended.
New
sensor markets will see great increases as radio frequency (RF)
systems supplant EO/IR capabilities, and next-generation UAVs at all
scales require much more sophisticated - and expensive - sensors.
"Rapidly increasing capabilities for RF sensors will be funded,
as potential conflicts shift from clear-skies Central Asia to the
more restrictive geographies of Eastern Europe and the Pacific,"
according to David Rockwell, author of the electronics portion of the
new study.
"UAVs
will continue to provide the world's fastest-growing aerospace
payload market, but not through continued growth of 'the usual
suspects' from the past decade. Instead, new sensor programs for
current and future air vehicles will result in more unexpected growth
spurts and losses. We now forecast a number of speculative new
programs in the out-years, including estimates of classified
programs. Wise companies will plan today for growth tomorrow,"
according to Rockwell.
"UAVs
are no longer of interest only to aerospace companies, but
increasingly technology companies like Google, Facebook and Amazon
see a need to be in the market," said Finnegan.
