Wednesday, April 14, 2021

TwinSpires highlights surprising upsets ahead of Kentucky Derby

As we close in on the first Saturday in May, we’re only 17 days away from the 147th Run for the Roses Kentucky Derby.

The road to the Kentucky Derby wrapped up last Saturday with a pair of surprising upsets, according to TwinSpires, an online service for horse race betting in the United States.

In the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland, 18-1 long shot King Fury rallied to claim victory and 20 qualification points, putting him in 28th on the leaderboard. Trainer Kenny McPeek indicated King Fury is eyeing the Derby if enough horses above him drop out to help him qualify. Those drop outs are occurring.

With 70 points and a 9th place spot on the leaderboard, Bob Baffert’s Concert Tour was the heavy favorite for the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park with 3-10 odds. But as Concert Tour weakened at the eighth pole, 12-1 long shot Super Stock took advantage and soared to victory to claim 100 points and a spot in the top 20.

One thing that does seem for sure is Essential Quality being the Derby favorite.

There is now no doubt in my mind that undefeated champion Essential Quality will start the Derby a well-supported favorite,” TwinSpires Handicapper Ed DeRosa said a WDRB TV articleThe combination of his unblemished record, fast times, local trainer and color (gray) will all add up to a large amount of public support.”

After Concert Tour’s stumble in the Arkansas Derby, DeRosa is predicting Essential Quality will go off at 7-2 odds.

Other Derby coverage:

Get to know the 2021 Kentucky Derby contenders

Kentucky Derby Pedigree Profile: King Fury

Kentucky Derby roundup: April 12, 2021

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